Introduction
A reader recently shared summary statistics from a recent Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) class and requested a breakdown. This snapshot is from a November 2021 class and includes statistics on Special Forces selection rates by job type (enlisted, officer, 18X, non-18X), service status (active duty, national guard), and also the reason for being dropped from the course (voluntary, involuntary, medical, or admin).
Unfortunately, we do not have demographic details or APFT scores on the population or subgroups, so in this article, we will not be able to draw conclusions on fitness levels for preparation. However, in a previous article, we analyzed several studies on the predictors of SFAS success – APFT scores, rucking, and other fitness metrics.
Acronym Breakdown
Before we dive into the details, here are some acronyms to help understand the selection statistics.
ADO – Active Duty Officer
NGO – National Guard Officer
IS-ADE – In Service (non 18X) Active Duty Enlisted
18X-ADE – 18X Active Duty Enlisted
NGE – In Service (non 18X) National Guard Enlisted
NG18X – 18X National Guard Enlisted
PFA – Physical Fitness Assessment
PR – Peer Review
Gate 2 R/R – Gate 2 Run/Ruck
Voluntary Withdraw – Request to leave selection
In-Voluntary Withdraw – Any reason for withdraw other than voluntary, medical, or admin
Statistics Highlights
The overall selection rate for the November SFAS class was 44% (151/345).
The overall drop rate (voluntary + involuntary + admin + medical + peer review) was 56% (194/345)
The drop rate due to physical performance on the PFA and Run/Ruck events was 17% (59/345)
The drop rate due to land navigation was 24% (82/345)
The drop rate due to peer review was 14% (48/345)
The voluntary withdraw rate was 6% (22/345)
The medical withdraw rate was 2% (7/345)
Non-18X National Guard Enlisted candidates had the highest selection rate at 60%, followed by Active Duty 18X candidates at 53%, Active Duty Officers at 50%, National Guard Officers at 44%, and National Guard 18X candidates at 35%.
Army 18X candidates (Active Duty and National Guard) had a 50% success rate at selection with 29% receiving involuntary withdrawals.
Analysis
What can we takeaway from the summary statistics? Well, we know that almost 20% of the class was dropped due to physical performance. We can eliminate this risk by following a regimented weight lifting, rucking, running, and shin splint prevention program.
Almost one quarter of the class was dropped due to land navigation. Candidates should study and practice for land navigation before selection.
Another 14% of the class was dropped because of negative peer reviews. Remember that selection is not just about being a physical stud, it’s about finding the right person to become a Green Beret. Be a good teammate.
The group with the highest selection rate was non-18X National Guard enlisted candidates. Although this data differs from what we have analyzed previously, it would make sense that candidates who have already passed their state’s Special Forces Readiness Evaluation (SFRE) would fare better at selection. Passing SFRE means a candidate was vetted by his state to meet the physical standards and has been pushed mentally and physically through the state’s selection course.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, the data we have is summary statistics – group averages. Remember that being a non-18X National Guard candidate does not make one inherently more likely to pass selection than an 18X National Guard candidate. The best candidates can do is exceed the standards and rigorously prepare for selection.
Keep in mind as well, that as many as 50% of candidates will drop from SFQC after SFAS.
Read More
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