Introduction
Many readers were shocked by the previous week’s article which outlined a 44% selection rate in a November 2021 SFAS class. One reader asked whether the Army was watering down SFAS and making it easier, and if it was still worth enlisting to be a Green Beret. Others were encouraged by the lower attrition rate and wished they were in the November 2021 class because they thought it was easier. To be fair to both groups, a 44% selection rate sounds high. If 44% of those who enlisted through the Army 18X program or attempted SFAS earned their Green Beret, it would be surprising. The problem is those statistics don’t tell the full story.
Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) Attrition Rate
The attrition rate at SFAS varies from class to class based on the quality of the candidates and the needs of the Army. From the recently unclassified SOCOM report, we can see the attrition rate varies from as high as 75% to as low as 57%. On average, about 36% of the starting SFAS class is selected. But remember, civilians who voluntarily or involuntarily lose their 18X contract in OSUT, Airborne, SOPC, or prior to SFAS are not included in these attrition numbers. The 36% selection rate only includes those who class up at SFAS, it doesn’t consider attrition earlier in the pipeline.
Special Forces Qualification Course (SFQC)
Getting selected at SFAS does not mean a soldier will earn their Green Beret. It only earns a candidate the chance to move on to the Special Forces Qualification Course (SFQC) – 1.5 years of training which includes Unconventional Warfare, Small Unit Tactics, MOS specific training (add 6 months if 18D), Robin Sage, Free Fall, Language School, and more. After successful graduation of SFQC, a candidate will earn his Green Beret.
But interestingly, a significant number of candidates who are selected at SFAS will voluntarily withdraw prior to SFQC. Although we don’t have data on why a candidate withdraws following SFAS, we can see that the number of candidates who are selected from SFAS in nearly every year group is smaller than the group which follows for SFQC.
Why might a candidate voluntarily withdraw prior to SFQC? Well, the pipeline is grueling, and the candidate could be unwilling to learn a new MOS and deal with multiple months of grueling work, training, and little sleep. Some are newly married or have families and realize the time away from home is too much to manage. Others are close to the end of their enlistment and would rather leave the Army than reenlist for several more years to complete SFQC.
SFQC Attrition Rate
Unlike the Navy SEAL teams, which issue the coveted Navy SEAL trident after 6 months of training, and the 75th Ranger Regiment, which issues the famous tan beret after 8 weeks of training, the Green Beret pipeline is 1.5 years long. The 21 day SFAS course is simply step one to earning a Green Beret.
For enlisted soldiers, the attrition rate at SFQC has been as high as 50% and as low as 23%. The average attrition rate is 35%. Going back to the November 2021 SFAS class: If the entire selected population advanced to SFQC and 65% of the group graduated SFQC, then only 28% of the starting SFAS class would go on to earn their Green Beret. This is much more in line with what we would expect.
In fact, it puts the supposedly “easy” SFAS and SFQC class right in line with the average graduation rate at BUD/S – 27%.
Conclusion
The reality is that different SFAS classes have different attrition rates. And it’s true that the SFAS selection rates have been high in some years. But a candidate should not expect that getting selected at SFAS is enough to make it through SFQC. If a bad or weak candidate makes it through SFAS, he will be exposed at SFQC. 1.5 years is a long pipeline.
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